Has Romney's Momentum Stopped?

New York Times - 10/25/2012

Nate Silver discusses Romney's post-Denver debate surge and usage of the word "momentum" in political coverage:

  • Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.
  • Part of the confusion (and part of the reason behind the perception that Mr. Romney is still gaining ground in the race) may be because of the headlines that accompany polls
  • The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast”  finds a slightly favorable trend for Mr. Obama over the course of the past 10 days or so.
  • Mr. Obama was 1.4 percentage points ahead in the “now-cast”, meaning that he may have regained about 1 percentage point of the 4 points or so that he lost after Denver.

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